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Hello good people and welcome back for the 5th season of Lost and Delirious. As many of you may know, CBS and Mark Burnett recently officially announced the 16 cast members for the 7th season of the reality ratings giant, Survivor. Before I really get into anything, let me say that while my column is fun to write and relatively informative, you really should keep an eye on the official Survivor site at CBS.com. Survivor: Pearl Islands will begin with a 90 minute premiere episode on Thursday, Sept. 18 at 8pm EST/7pm PST.
Now this is MY kind of place!
Talk about a change of pace! While still settling in a tropical paradise, this season's version of Survivor takes on a new twist being hosted in Panama's Pearl Islands. The Pearl Islands were "discovered" in 1513 by Vasco Nunez de Balboa who soon learned that these islands were stuffed with pearls. Once word of the riches of the area got around, an expedition was sent to the islands in 1515, and when the sailors returned, they claimed to have killed all the natives after they'd stolen their treasure. With the natives dead, the Spanish decided to populate the island with slaves, whose sole purpose was to fish and cultivate the pearls. As time passed and Peru was conquered (kicking up the gold trade), Panama was a nice stop on the way back to Spain. With the increased numbers of ships carrying gold back to Spain and the wealth of the islands themselves, the Pearls became a haven for pirates. Two of the more famous of the pirates were Henry Morgan, who plundered and burned Panama City in 1671 and Sir Francis Drake who these waters to terrorize Spanish settlers for years. You'll note their influence on our game in the 2 tribe names.
The Pearl Islands
The area itself is made up of 90 different islands, of which each tribe will have their very own. The islands possess drinkable water, which is a little different for a Survivor location and the tropical rain forest life of flora and fauna. The area serves as home to several species of birds not found elsewhere, and the sea life promises to make some of the underwater challenges all the more challenging. For more info on the Islands, you can "Google" search it, or try right here.
Before we get to the introductions of the 16 new Survivors, I want to mention that we have been promised many changes in this season's version of Survivor. And it will start with the marooning of the players. Though it hasn't been released how the marooning is different, one thing I have found out is that the survivors are dumped off with no change of clothes and no luxury item for the first time in Survivor history. Essentially, they're left with nothing but the clothes on their back. Also, as mentioned above, each tribe will have their own island, as opposed to separate camps on the same island. They've also promised some new challenges, and is has been rumored for a while that not only will the tribe that wins the challenge reap a reward, the team that loses the challenge will have to pay a price. I can't wait to see how that plays out. Now, all of this is pure rumor at this point and won't be known for sure ,until we all see the show. As I have for the past 3 seasons, I'm listing my odds for each Survivor to win the $1,000,000. A note about these odds: they are merely for fun, so please, folks, no wagering.
DRAKE TRIBE
Background: Burton Roberts is the first of 4 new Survivors hailing from The Recall State, aka California. A marketing exec for a start-up software company, 31 year old Roberts has spent time in Houston, TX and St. Louis, MO earning 2 Bachelor degrees and a Masters degree in business administration. He loves adventure racing, mountain biking and traveling and describes himself as adventurous, funny and a hard worker. He feels his experience as an Eagle Scout and adventure racer will help him and he believes his strength, smarts and his ability to take care of himself will serve him well in the Pearls.
Chances: Wow. Right off the bat, Burton sounds like an excellent candidate to go far. The three adjectives he uses to describe himself will indeed serve him well. Hard workers, provided they aren't bossy, always do well. Having a sense of humor will also help him fit in the social aspect of the game. However, he strikes me as the kind of guy that, once the game really gets going, will stand out as a major threat, and regardless of his personality, that may paint a big bull’s eye on his head. I'd wager that his work ethic and strength will get him through to the merge. How far he goes after this may well depend on if he's part of the main alliance. I'd bet he will be, but his strength may make him the first of his alliance to go. I see a definite jury member here and a potential final 4 guy.
Odds of winning: 5-1
Background: Christa Hastie, a computer programmer, is our 2nd Californian on the cast. She's engaged to a racecar driver, and has learned enough about cars to be a part of his pit crew. Aside from tinkering on cars and computers, she also enjoys designing and making fun and unique clothes. She describes herself as an extrovert, but says she is also genuine and "chameleon like" in that she can fit into any situation. She did 4 years as a lifeguard through high school and is most proud of her bachelor's degree. She also figures her touch in the kitchen will aide her in her hopes of becoming the sole survivor. And last, you certainly won't unexpectedly see her on The Smoking Gun this season, as she was upfront with CBS about her arrest in college for jumping on the hood of her car (as it was being towed). The official charge, "disrupting an officer's ability to perform his duties."
Chances: Ya know...this girl is set up perfectly to be the "sweetheart" of Survivor 7. But, so was Heidi last season. And Penny the season before that. And we saw how both of them turned out. I'm seeing the same type of outcome for Ms. Hastie. And I'm basing this solely on the one picture at CBS.com. I think she will rub people the wrong way, and looking at the rest of the tribe, I don't think they'll care if she can cook. I see her lasting to the merge, but only because I see Drake as a much stronger tribe and I think they'll have fewer Tribal Councils, allowing her to stay longer than she really should.
Odds of winning: 40-1
Background: Next up is Jon Dalton from Danville, VA. He's moved through Washington, DC, Portland, OR and Los Angeles where he's held jobs varying from an art consultant to radio and phone sales to an assistant to "Rowdy" Roddy Piper. He describes himself as sharp, quick and amazing and feels his organizational skills, leadership ability and work ethic make him the perfect survivor. And, shockingly, he's still single. C'mon ladies...how can you let a prize bull like this go unclaimed?
Chances: Ok. This guy's toast. He is without a doubt the Robbbbb of this group. He is already the most disliked of the Survivors due to his "I have to get rid of the old people" comment on the Early Show. He also seems to think he'll be the first person to have sex on Survivor. Um...yeah. I see no way this guy makes the merge. He'll make it through the first couple votes because of his strength, but I don't see people putting up with this idiot for much longer than 9-12 days.
Odds of winning: 75-1
Background: Michelle Tesauro hails from Washington, DC, but was born and raised in Pittstown, NJ. She's a recent graduate from Virginia Polytechnic Institute with a BS in business and marketing. She's held many jobs including lifeguard, marketing intern and with the Universal Cheerleaders Association. Her favorite hobbies include reading, gymnastics and stunting. She feels her sense of humor will help her through the tough times on Survivor and describes herself as imaginative, clumsy and athletic. She also says that she is a lot tougher than people give her credit for.
Chances: Attention future young female Survivor applicants: please study Miss Tesauro's bio and "get to know her" video. This is how one positions themselves to be the "sweetheart of Survivor." I see no reason why this girl won't be the next Elizabeth or Colleen. She's young, she's cute and she seems to have the personality that the viewers will fall in love with. How will this serve her in the game? Well, like the other sweethearts, I think it will serve her well. Colleen was a blown immunity away form lasting deep into the game and Liz was a purple rock away from the final 2. I see Michelle easily making the merge but likely falling just shy of the final 4.
Odds of winning: 15-1
Background: Rupert Boneham is our next contestant and hails from Indianapolis, IN. He is a clinical and vocational mentor for troubled teens and seems to truly love his work. His past jobs have included digging graves and *WHOOP, WHOOP, WHOOP* here's our resident bartender!!!! His hobbies are camping, scuba diving and collecting coins. He feels his skills as a survivor, hunter and gatherer and his ability to be a team player will serve him well on Survivor. He describes himself as strong, brave and smart and is most proud of becoming self-employed so as not to fall into the guidelines of the 9-5 world. He is married (Laura) and has a 4-year old daughter, Raya.
Chances: Ah....this is the guy I was waiting for. The guy looks like a cross between Hagrid from the Harry Potter stories and Ogre from Revenge of the Nerds. I love the hair and beard thing he has going on and he seems like a genuinely good guy. He's used to dealing with troubled teens, but will that translate into a good rapport with some whiny 20-somethings? I wonder. I think he could do good things and I think he could be a blast to watch, but something tells me he's gonna find himself on the wrong side of the alliance and an early boot, maybe even before the merge.
Odds of winning: 30-1
Background: And coming to us from Ft. Lewis Washington is Sandra Diaz-Twine, an office associate for the Army and Air Force Exchange Service. She's held many positions in the service and her favorite hobbies are camping and fishing. She and her husband, Marcus, have 2 children, Tatiana and Alanna. She describes herself as dedicated, a team player and adventurous. She believes her ability to improvise and her small knowledge of hunting will serve her well on Survivor. She feels she possesses good field skills and will be a good provider.
Chances: Ok, having watched Sandra's video, where she mentions that it is really easy to make her mad...I hafta think she could be fighting for the coveted "first person voted out" award. She seems like she has quite a chip on her shoulder and as soon as someone doesn't agree with her or tells her to do something in not the right way, she may lose it on them. And if there's anything people should have learned by now, it's that conflict within the tribe can be deadly at the start of the game. I'm not sure if she'll be first to go, but I'd wager she'll be darn close to first.
Odds of winning: 100-1
Background: Shawn Cohen is a New York City boy transplanted to Hollywood. Cohen, a former account executive for an advertising agency, is called "The Ultimate Salesman" by his friends and family. His hobbies include going to the movies, film editing, surfing, snowboarding and camping. He describes himself as charismatic, caring and spontaneous and feels he'll do well on Survivor because he's competitive, never quits, is a problem solver and someone who works extremely well under pressure. Yes ladies, Shawn is single and living in Hollywood. Go get him, girls!
Chances: Ah yes. This guy has the perfect pedigree to win this game. He has that "ultimate salesman" thing going for him. And we remember that Brian Heidik won the game 2 seasons ago with the same pedigree. but what separates Shawn from Brian is that he seems to be a nice guy. People will like him. People will want to keep him around. I think he has a helluva shot to win the whole thing. And if he and Burton team up, watch out, they could run the entire game. I'd say Shawn is as much of a lock for the final 4 as I've seen on this tribe. He's got the pedigree and he looks to have the ability to run off a string of immunity wins, should he ever need them.
Odds of winning: 4-1
Background: And this year's entry in the Rev John/Matthew "I am way too proud of myself and it shows in my bio" sweepstakes is Trish Dunn from Annapolis, MD. She's always worked in some sort of sales job, be it media, advertising or investments. She has a BS from the University of Maryland and lists her favorite hobbies as marathon running, bungee jumping, rock climbing, hiking and anything that challenges her (she recently learned how to snowboard). She's completed 24 marathons, including 10 Boston marathons and considers herself to be focused competitive and loyal. She feels she's ready for Survivor because her athletic skills make her a useful member of the tribe. She further describes herself as extremely competitive, an excellent swimmer, a born leader and a gifted problem solver. I'd list the organizations she belongs to, but I simply don't have the space for all that.
Chances: Ya know...Trish definitely has what it takes to do well here. She's completely focused on the million dollars, which is a pretty good thing to be if you want to win. I have a feeling though that she just might not fit in, a la Jeanne from last season. We've got 4 guys who all consider themselves manly men, 2 young girls who won't be able to relate to a 40 year old mother of 2 and I think Trish may find herself on the outside looking in. I don't think she'll go before Jon or Sandra, but I think she'll survive to the merge, only because she's on the stronger team. She'll be gone shortly thereafter.
Odds of winning: 50-1
MORGAN TRIBE
Background: From the windy city of Chicago blows in Andrew Savage, an intellectual property attorney with a major Chicago law firm. Savage has a doctorate in law from the University of Cincinnati and has spent extensive time in South Africa where he owned an import/export business with his wife, Stephanie. Andrew considers himself athletic, adventurous and ambitious and lists rugby, cross training and playing with his kids (Mackenzie and Skyleur.) Andrew takes his cue from Nelson Mandela, who he considers to be the ultimate Survivor and feels his intelligence, athleticism and his ability to get along with everyone will help him emulate his hero, Mandela.
Chances: Ok, while I can't deny that Andrew has what it takes to win this competition, I can say that in watching his video, he seems a little too sure of himself and I can definitely see where he may feel he's much smarter than the people he's competing against. If this attitude shows at all, consider this guy a goner. I think his strength will be enough to keep in the game for awhile, but I really don't see him having much of an impact in the game. I could see him making the merge and missing the jury, or being one of the first couple jury members. He has a lot going his way, but I think his personality will be too strong. Odds of winning: 15-1
Background: And the award for the "Best Job for a Survivor Contestant" goes to Darrah Johnson, a 22 year old mortician from Liberty, MS. She's also held jobs as a waitress, fitness trainer and as a salesperson. Darrah's favorite hobbies include riding 4-wheelers, working out and hunting. She describes herself as daring, outspoken and adventurous. Her favorite sports are softball and basketball and her primary motivation for participating in Survivor is for the challenge and the fact that she'd love to meet new people from all over the world with different personalities. She feels she will do well on Survivor because she's hard working, competitive, ambitious, athletic, determined and in great physical and mental health.
Chances: Here she is, ladies and gentlemen. My nominee for Survivor 7's projectile puker. Maybe it's the southern accent, but I'm getting visions of Thailand Tanya when I look at this girl. I think she'll be able to endear herself to people enough that they'll want to keep her around, but I could easily see her not being able to handle the environment and the lack of food. And I could see her getting pretty sick right off the bat. I don't see much upside to her at this point and would figure her to be one of the first 2 people voted off this tribe. Ok, I'll say it...she'll be the first to go.
Odds of winning: 100-1
Background: From Cincinnati, OH comes Lillian "Lill" Morris, a Boy Scoutmaster for the past 11 years. She's a former customer service rep for an eyeglass company and is very proud of her participation in Thailand for her company's "Gift of Sight Program" where she helped pass out some 23,000 pairs of glasses. Her favorite hobbies include camping, backpacking through the Philmont Scout Reservation in Arizona and canoeing in Ely/Upper Michigan. She feels she's ready for this adventure because of her outdoor skills, leadership, patience, ability to be a team player, tolerance, acceptance, positive attitude and resourcefulness...and she considers herself adventurous, outspoken and daring. Lill currently lives in Loveland, OH with her husband of 30 years, Lonnie. She has 2 grown children, Clayton and Megan.
Chances: On first glance, I see Lill and I see the first person kicked out of this game. She's a little quirky. I mean, c'mon, she did her interviews and her photo shoot in her scout uniform for crying out loud. This is a woman who obviously marches to her own drummer. I could see her very easily being outcast by the younger tribe and sent packing right away. However, I don't think it's going to happen that way. I think she's gonna benefit from some weaker tribe members and will have herself solidly entrenched in this game and will be the surprise of the jury, similar to Granny Janny. (I mean, really, who thought she'd get to 3rd place, ya know?) I don't think Lill has a legit shot at winning the whole thing, but I do think she'll cast a vote for the winner.
Odds of winning: 30-1
Background: Getting back to California, we have Nicole Delma, a sports massage therapist on the pro-volleyball tour. She left her home in Washington to use her full scholarship to Santa Clara University, where she got a BA in communications. She then went to school to become a certified massage therapist. She's also worked as a medical assistant, media buyer and (here it is again) bartender!! Nicole describes herself as strong, resourceful and a risk taker. Her hobbies include racing/running in marathons, training and gourmet cooking. And she feels she'll be useful as a survivor because she grew up in the outdoors and camped, hiked, biked and kayaked her way through the wilderness on islands every summer. She believes she's perfect for this adventure because she is in peak physical condition, young, energetic, certified in sports massage and medically trained.
Chances: And it looks like we've found this season's vixen. Someone to fill Heidi's shoes. Or Marquesas Sarah's. In her video she said she'll have no problem getting naked and using her body and massage skills to her advantage. Looking at the rest of the cast, I figure she'll pick one or both of the Ryans as her victim(s). But this style won't play out well this time around. I don't see her making too much of a splash on this game. She won't go first, or even second on this tribe, but I'd be surprised if she made the merge and downright shocked if she made the jury.
Odds of winning: 50-1
Background: Osten Taylor comes to us from the South of Boston (I wonder, does that make him a Southie, a la Affleck and Damon...but I digress) and describes himself as focused, outspoken and personable. He's currently an equity trade manager and is proud of fulfilling a childhood dream of working on Wall Street. His favorite hobbies include golf, fitness training and "boozing with the fellas from UNH & The Braintree Boyz in Bean-Town." He feels he's ready for Survivor because of his resourcefulness, mental stability, wisdom, patience and God's blessing. Originally born in New Hampshire, Osten is 27 and single.
Chances: Osten's bio doesn't do a lot for me, and after watching his video, I already feel bad for the guy. He seems like a genuine, nice guy who's going to expect fair play in a game that is notorious for NOT having any. I don't see him making any waves and lasting for a while, but he won't land on the main alliance in his tribe and will be shown the door after the weak players, I think. I could see him gone prior to or just after the merge.
Odds of winning: 40-1
Background: The first of the "Ryans" and last of the Californians is Ryan Opray, an electrician from Los Gatos, CA. He's also held jobs as a traffic signal technician, motorcycle mechanic and warehouse stockperson. He describes himself as funny, aggressive and clever. His hobbies include motocross and weightlifting. He feels he's ready for Survivor because of his strength and his ability to build things. Folks, I tried to stretch this out as much as possible, but that's about it.
Chances: Every year there's one person that leaves a tiny little bio and then I'm expected to predict how they do. Sheesh. Having watched Ryan's video, I think I have a better idea what he's about. I think he'll do very well. He knows what it takes to do well and he knows what will get you tossed. What I like is that he's already preparing himself to bite his tongue and just deal with the lazy people in the tribe. Honestly, I think the other tribe is much stronger and Ryan may well be the strongest link on this tribe as far as potential longevity is concerned. I see him as a definite merge member, and potential Final 4 member.
Odds of winning: 8-1
Background: Ryan #2 is Ryan Shoulders from Clarksville, TN. His favorite hobbies include writing/recording his own punk and electronic rock music, watching and creating movies and going to rock concerts. Favorite sports include indoor soccer, basketball and Capture the Flag. He describes himself as unpredictable, creative and fascinating and feels he'll do well on Survivor because he is creative and has a resourceful mind for problem solving. He has five dogs, one of which is three-legged and currently lives alone. He's 23 years old and single. Please ladies, don't email me...I don't know his number.
Chances: By far, this guy had the best audition tape of the cast. By far, this guy could be the most entertaining of the cast. It looks to me like Burnett and Co. were trying to catch that Rob Cesternino lightning in a bottle twice in a row. Hate to break it to them...not a chance. This kid might be mentally tough enough, and likable enough. But look at him, he's skin and bones. He doesn't strike me as the athletic, strong type anyway, but imagine him after a few days with no food. I think he will physically run out of gas, making himself a liability for his team, and making him one of, if not the first to get the boot from Morgan.
Odds of winning: 75-1
Background: Ladies and gentlemen, hailing from the great city of St. Louis, MO and a former cheerleader for St. Louis University (my employer) is Tijuana Bradley. YEA!!!!! Tijuana's currently single and waitressing after recently resigning from a position in pharmaceutical sales. She's got a BA from SLU and has worked at a network affiliated TV station and been a high school cheerleading coach. Her favorite hobbies are fishing, skydiving and taking her nieces out to different entertainment and educational events. She belongs to Big Brothers/Big Sisters and volunteers at women's and homeless shelters. She describes herself as perky, emotional and genuine. She believes her sense of logic, attention to detail, athleticism, expression, motivation, ability to be realistic and nurturing nature make her a perfect candidate for Survivor.
Chances: Ok, so I'm rooting for the hometown girl, sue me. What I find the neatest about Tijuana is she seems to break the Survivor mold of African American women who are all religious zealots. Linda, Vee, Ghandia and most recently Joanna are the examples that come to mind. It's nice to see that it appears Tijuana is coming to play and not preach. She has an excellent pedigree and seems as nice as she can be in her videos. The question is, how hard will she work and will she be able to take being told what to do without getting upset. She seems like a very independent woman, and we all know how the guys in the tribes like to take over. Will that fly with her? I sure hope so, because I'm picking her as having the best chance to make the Final Four out of this tribe. Don't know that she'll win, but I do think she'll be a player on the final episode of Survivor: Pearl Islands.
Odds of winning: 8-1
THE JURY
Ok, so now it's time for me to lay it on the line and tell you who I foresee making up the jury and eventually winning this game. I see (in no particular order) Burton, Michelle, Shawn, Rupert, Andrew, Lill, Ryan O, Tijuana and Christa making up the jury. I see Trish as making the merge and being the person voted out right before the jury. With that breakdown, I'm predicting a 6-4 Drake advantage. However, I don't think the rest of the votes will go down tribal lines and I see Tijuana and possibly Ryan joining forces with some Drake members to form the power alliance in the game.
THE FINAL FOUR
So, now we're down to the nitty, gritty. I don't see Rupert, Lill, Andrew or Christa really being a big threat to crack the final 4. The people I see as the stiffest competition are Ryan O, Tijuana, Shawn, Burton and Michelle, with Michelle falling just short of the final show.
My Final 4 this time around are: Ryan O, Tijuana, Burton and Shawn.
Now, if I have to lay it all on the line, I think the alliance of Burton and Shawn will be strong. I think they'll control the immunity necklace at the end of the game and I think they'll be the final 2 guys vying for $1,000,000. And when all is said and done, Shawn is more likable and more genuine and that will carry him to victory. Ladies and gentlemen, your winner of Survivor: Pearl Islands...Shawn Cohen.
If you'd like to agree with me, bash me for my picks or just have some comments you'd like to share with me, please feel free to send an email right here!
A reminder to everyone reading this that you can find Survivor: Pearl Islands on CBS beginning Thursday, September 18 at 8pm EST/7pm CST. And a further reminder, be sure to check back right here at The Trades for the weekly version of the S-Ratings, where The Trades staff will try to predict who will be the next person kicked out of the tribe. Oh yeah, and don't forget the weekly Lost and Delirious recaps. Heh heh.
So, let's break out the rum, the parrots on our shoulders...let's put on our eye patches and practice up on our best "ARGHHHHHH"s and prepare for Survivor - Pirate style. I know I can't wait! Until then, take care and God bless.
DRAKE TRIBE
Age
Marital Status
Occupation
Hometown
Jim's Line
Burton Roberts
31
Single
Marketing Executive
San Francisco, CA
5-1
Christa Hastie
24
Engaged
Computer Programmer
Los Angeles, CA
40-1
Jon Dalton
29
Single
Art Consultant
Danville, VA
75-1
Michelle Tesauro
22
Single
Student
Pittstown, NJ
15-1
Rupert Boneham
39
Married
Troubled Teens Mentor
Indianapolis, IN
30-1
Sandra Diaz-Twine
29
Married
Office Assistant
Ft. Lewis, WA
100-1
Shawn Cohen
29
Single
Advertising Sales
New York, NY
4-1
Trish Dunn
42
Married
Sales Executive
Anapolis, MD
50-1
MORGAN TRIBE
Age
Marital Status
Occupation
Hometown
Jim's Line
Andrew Savage
40
Married
Attorney
Chicago, IL
15-1
Darrah Johnson
22
Single
Mortician
Liberty, MS
100-1
Lillian Morris
51
Married
Scout Troop Leader
Cincinnati, OH
30-1
Nicole Delma
24
Single
Massage Therapist
Hermosa Beach, CA
50-1
Osten Taylor
27
Single
Equity Trade Manager
Boston, MA
40-1
Ryan Opray
31
Single
Electrician
Los Gatos, CA
8-1
Ryan Shoulders
23
Single
Produce Clerk
Clarksville, TN
75-1
Tijuana Bradley
27
Single
Pharmaceutical Sales
St. Louis, MO
8-1
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