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ARTICLE
The S-Ratings: Survivor Pearl Islands - Episode 7, pt. 2
by The Trades Staff Published: November 3, 2003
This season's twist has been announced -- the return of
evictees -- and it looks like the biggest twist is how unpopular it is! (If you missed the
episode and wonder how on earth people return to Survivor, read Jim's recap.)
In the wake of the twist, there's more than the usual mystery involved, so we're
going to do more than the usual picks. First we'll make our picks about who returns to the game, and then, just in case, we'll also do
our usual immunity picks.
I know I had Trish pegged for a revival going into last week's "shocking twist"; however, I now feel that we've been handed the likely returnees on a silver platter.
Savage spent what seemed like the entire episode outraged at the prospect of Lillian returning to the game. Drake lamented getting their tails handed to them by Burton in the 3-way jailbreak challenge. And Sandra openly speculated that Burton and Lill will be elected to rise from the dead. Couple that with Burton's victory speech plus Lill's infamous "torch that wouldn't die" scene and we have overwhelming evidence in the editing that points to their revival.
It does make logical sense as well. Among the group of six Outcasts, we have two clearly defined alliances. Lill and Skinny Ryan (poor kid's been cursed with that nickname for life), along with Burton & Michelle. Presuming they've locked up their voting power, all that Nicole and Trish can hope to do is to pick the more worthy member of each of those two alliances to return to the game. Their only other option would be to pact together themselves; however, given that they've never interacted within the game until now, and Trish's torch was first extinguished a mere 24 hours earlier, it's not looking too likely.
Thoughts on Burton returning: Burton's likely impact upon his return should be self-evident. He's an experienced veteran of reality television, having previously participated in Mark Burnett's own Eco-Challenge competition last year. He's cocky, confident and has yet to be on the losing end of a challenge in this edition of Survivor. He'll be returning to a Drake tribe that has fallen into complete and utter turmoil in his absence. He's immune this week and individual ICs loom on the horizon. In short, Burton's return poses a serious threat to everyone in this game, he'll be the undisputed favorite to win any challenge he competes in and one could arguably accuse Burnett of pre-planning the resurrection twist to give his buddy Burton a second shot at Survivor glory.
Thoughts on Lillian returning: Despite not being the physical force that Burton is, Lillian's resurrection should prove to be equally as potent, if not more so. Initially, her return will shake up the tribal dynamics within Morgan (as noted in my boot prediction for this week). If she's able to forge a solid alliance with the remaining Morgans heading into the merge against a severely fractured Drake tribe, she could easily slide under the radar as Drake implodes and the big power players take each other out.
While, ultimately, her perceived status as a revived "Outcast" will likely hinder her chances of being able to win the million in a jury vote (and this goes for Burton as well), there's no reason to think that Lill won't last a while upon her return. In fact, the stigma of being an "Outcast" might ensure a player like Lill gets protected as a desirable F2 opponent over the long haul.
Thoughts on Burton returning: I never felt Burton received a storyline.
There was nothing about his time on the show that was even remotely memorable,
so I think he was being
edited to return later.
Thoughts on Lillian returning: She'd be the best of the women to come
back (actually, I'd be interested to see Nicole come back, and see how the blue
dress lasts). As always, I
root for the older ladies, so I'd like to see Lill come back in.
Thoughts on Burton returning: Burton is a strong player and probably
has gotten the Outcasts to choose him to return to the game. I think he is probably
angry that he was voted out unexpectedly. He thought he had things wrapped up,
but he was wrong and wants revenge.
Thoughts on Trish returning: Trish is stupid and should not return to the game for any reason. Actually, this whole thing
is stupid and I don't like it. The other people voted out are flaky and irritating. Trish is the person most resembling a normal human
being. She returns.
Thoughts on Trish returning: Trish just rocks my world. She did
not deserve to go last week. I feel she will be the second player to return for
the simple fact that she was the last person to exit. Also, she will probably have
former tribe members Michelle and Burton's vote, along with Lillian, maybe. All in all,
I think she will be the second person coming back to the game, to hopefully take her
former tribe, and rip it to shreds!!!! (Sorry ... I just really like Trish!)
Thoughts on Lillian returning: Lillian seems like a really nice
woman, and was given a bad break when her tribe decided to keep Darrah over her.
I think she will automatically have Ryan S.'s vote to come back, and I think she will
bond with just about everyone, mostly with Trish. Because of all of this, I feel Lillian
will definitely be coming back.
Thoughts on Burton returning: He will be rewarded for carrying the challenge. Also, since the Outcasts all seemed to
have a big chip on their shoulders, I expect them to pick the person most likely to win, and that would be Burton.
Thoughts on Lillian returning: Why Lill? Well, Ryan S. and Nicole have no support to get back on. Trish was one of the
ones that got Burton and Michelle off, so she won't get their votes. I'm discounting Michelle because I don't think they'll send 2
Drakes back. That leaves Lill. Like I want to see that scowly frown for even one second more.
Thoughts on Burton returning: I've heard more than one evicted
Survivor say what a strong competitor Burton is. And he sure looked capable during
the challenge last week! If the Outcasts want someone to go back and kick their old
tribes' tails, Burton's their man. Plus, considering the crew of Outcasts, Burton is an
Alpha to the max. He could probably get their votes by sheer force of will.
Thoughts on Lillian returning: My guess is that we're going to see the
return of one Morgan and one Drake. While I'd love to see Ryan S. give the
competition another shot -- what was he thinking in applying in the first place? --
Lillian is the most qualified Morgan. She performed well in the competitions and was
a hard worker at the camp. And I imagine that she has more supporters among the
Outcasts than the two other Morgans -- whatever it was that made her last longer
than the other Morgans in her original tribe (personality? skills?) probably has been
helping her with the Outcasts, too.
Well, wasn't that a nice twist? My fear was that one tribe would be voted out entirely to make room for the returning "Outcasts."
Fortunately, that wasn't what happened. In fact, the Outcasts' victory gave us all an opportunity to get rid of a lot of dead weight.
Osten was really getting on my nerves, and Shawn just didn't know how to play it cool. In the battle between Shawn and Jon, it was
really a choice between a guy who's strong but doesn't use his strength other than to bitch and moan (Shawn, of course) and a guy
who isn't as strong but tries really hard and works well around the camp, although he does make a lot of stupid decisions (Jon, of
course). In the end, I think Rupert et al. made the right decision in getting rid of Shawn. If they'd kept Shawn around, they would have
depended on him too much during the next challenge and his unwillingness to push hard would have sunk them again.
Thoughts on Burton and Lillian returning: These aren't easy choices. I don't even know how the returnees will be picked.
But if it's all about who has the most desire to return, then certainly Burton and Lillian are at the top of the heap. Surely Ryan S. has
a desire to return as well, but if the decision comes down to the other Outcasts, who in their right mind would vote for Ryan S. to
return to the island? The guy looked sickly before the game began! He would have no impact at all if he returned now. Only
Burton and Lillian have any chance of shaking things up, and that will likely influence the decision and vote of the other Outcasts.
Man, it's a good thing that I actually have the flu, because otherwise I would be
sick over how this great game has been destroyed. With that being said, as much as
I want to rant and rave, I just don't have the strength, so this will not be as long as it
deserves to be this week.
All I will say about the Outcasts is they had their chance and they lost -- end of
story. To let them back in is a travesty to not only the players in the game but to all
of the others who didn't win in the previous six seasons.
As for the quitter, I never want to see or hear from him again. I want on this
show so bad, and to watch him get there and then quit is just inexcusable. JP did the
right thing by throwing his torch down and telling him to go home.
Who is coming back? WHO REALLY CARES!!! None of them deserve it, but
since we are in the business of making picks, let's make some picks ...
Thoughts on Burton returning: Too much is being made about Sandra
worrying about Burty-boy coming back for it to not be in the mix. Burton will shake up
this game. He is strong and I think he has learned what got him booted earlier.
Thoughts on Lillian returning: A very quiet and under the radar-type
player who seems to draw the sympathy card from everyone around her. It could
make her a snake in the grass for the remainder of the game.
It's been revealed by Mark Burnett himself that the 2 returning players will draw
their buffs to see where they go. MY TWIST -- Burton goes to Morgan and Lill goes
to Drake. Burton can be an invaluable asset to Morgan because he knows how to
fish with the spear and can give them the strength they just lost with the quitter.
Lillian can go to Drake and work her way in with Sandra and Christa while Jon and
Rupert fight for control of the tribe.
And now for our picks for immunity. Who knows what returnee is going where ...
but we do know that none of them are going to get the boot!
July 11th, 2003 -- otherwise known as Day 19 of Survivor VII -- shall go down in history (and possibly infamy) as the longest day this game has yet experienced. A day of events so earth shattering that they could not be contained within a single episode!
Outcasts come back from the dead and avenge their early boots by earning the right to return to the game! Osten becomes the first player ever to check out voluntarily without an official ballot vote! Blackbeard goes on a tirade of Lex-like proportions! Survivor beats Friends in the ratings! What more can be said about Day 19?
Well, for those of you who feel cheated -- and there are plenty of you -- take solace in the fact that Survivor All-Stars is now underway in Panama, featuring our faves from past seasons reunited at long last in the spirit of competition, starvation and cash to wage war for the title of "Ultimate Survivor."
Likely participants include Rich, Susan, Rudy and Jenna from Pulau Tiga ... Tina, Colby, Alicia and Jerri from Australia ... Lex, Tom and Ethan from Africa ... Kathy and the Robfather from Marquesas ... and possibly even some faves from Thailand and Amazon, like S5 winner Brian, S6 winner Jenna or the incomparable Rob Cesternino.
You'll be able to get that "resurrection twist bad taste" out of your mouth by tuning in to their antics immediately following the Super Bowl.
Reasons why Drake wins immunity: While you can appreciate why Mark Burnett has granted immediate immunity upon the returning Outcasts to ensure his twist doesn't get shot to hell right out of the gates, it does raise the interesting dilemma of what would happen if an Outcast deliberately cost their tribe a challenge knowing full well they couldn't be touched in a vote to help boot a major threat in the game before individual immunities come into play. I don't think that will happen, as it would be a questionable long-term strategic decision, but I suspect CBS will have either designed the IC with this variable in mind or perhaps they'll deliberately leave the Outcasts on the sidelines while the remaining players duke it out for tribal immunity.
Either way, Drake presently boasts a 7-4 record over Morgan in team challenges. Of those 4 victories, one challenge was thrown by Drake and one challenge had Rupert as a "hostage" leading Morgan to the finish line. The other two wins (the gross food competition in Ep 5 and the weight endurance duel in Ep 6) boiled down to a battle of wills between individuals.
Morgan has continually floundered in any kind of challenge that has emphasized a collective team dynamic or speed ... and while Osten may no longer be around to bring the tribe down, there's no reason to expect the results will be any different this time around. Factor in Burton's perfect record (if he participates) along with Rupert, and Drake should take this in a walk.
Reasons for picking Jon: Does this choice even need an explanation? Drake boasts a solid 3-way alliance of Christa-Rupert-Sandra. Burton is immune. Jon's the odd man out. Thankfully for him, Drake should win this week to ensure that Jonny Fairplay gets to wreak more havoc with both tribes after the merge and recite many more wrestling catchphrases to amuse us all.
Reasons for picking Andrew: Lill's return to the tribe bodes ill tidings to Savage. We saw back on Day 9 how Andrew failed to clue Lill in on her impending demise, despite pledging to be straight with her. He's been depicted as openly hostile towards anyone rejoining the game, and he can no longer hide his terrible leadership abilities behind Osten, as everyone's favorite Morgan scapegoat has laid down his torch and bailed from the game. Ryan and Darrah have latched onto one another in a "snugglebunny" alliance to counter the prevalent Savage-Tijuana dynamic, and while T has been pushing Savage's buttons since Day 1, she'll be well aware of the fact that being tied to the elected leader of Morgan is a bad place to be in a merge scenario where Morgan enters down 5-4 to Drake. Expect Captain Savage to be cut loose this week in a Morgan mutiny that will do the legacy of Pearl Islands piracy proud.
Reasons why Drake wins immunity: I'm sure that they are going to
merge once the Outcasts are put back into the game, but if they compete as
separate tribes, Drake will really
want to win this, and if Burton comes back to them, they'll be an
excellent force.
Reasons for picking Jon: Obvious. Christa, Rupert and Sandra won't
budge from each other.
Reasons for picking Andrew: Okay, this one is tough. On the last
episode, we saw, for the first time, negative responses, from Tijuana, about Andrew's
leadership. That, tied with the fact that Darrah and Ryan O. were holding hands at
Tribal Council, makes e think Andrew might not be as "in" as he thinks with Tijuana,
Darrah and Ryan O.
Reasons why Drake wins immunity: Drake is still the strongest team.
Whoever returns to Morgan will just offset the loss of Osten. Drake has the
advantage of Rupert being mad. Whenever Rupert gets mad, things seem to go his
way.
Reasons for picking Jon: Jon is an idiot. Drake can't evict the person
who returns. Jon is the next logical choice, since he is the only one that Rupert
doesn't like.
Reasons for picking Darrah: Five weeks and counting, but still, nothing
has changed.
Reasons why Drake wins immunity: They seem to be the strongest
team, especially with the addition of Trish (a help for a mental or physical
challenge). Additionally, they seem to have a strong group of four, and will be happy
to see Trish back, and not Burton. Overall, they will win any challenge ...
hands down.
Reasons for picking Christa: Big Bird is so awesome. I like her a lot, but
they are too scared to vote out Rupert and Sandra, no reason to vote out Jon, and
Trish would be immune, so it seems like Christa would be the only choice, which is a
shame. but I think they will be immune if there is no merge this episode.
Reasons for picking Ryan O.: Andrew likes Tijuana more than Ryan O.,
and would not have a problem with being the only Alpha Male on the island. There's
no reason to boot Darrah, since she's not a threat down the line, and they
can't vote out Lillian, so it seems Ryan O. would logistically be a goner.
Once again, it's hard to predict who will get voted off. The only thing we know for sure is that in the BS rules of this whole
Outcast thing ... it won't be those two.
Reasons why Morgan wins immunity: I think this week will have the last tribal immunity challenge, and I've got a weird
suspicion that Burton could be headed to Morgan. If so, Morgan will easily win the challenge.
Reasons for picking Sandra: I think it's becoming pretty evident that Sandra is a free agent in this game. She'll join any
alliance and vote for anyone as long as it keeps her in the game. And this is a dangerous person to have around. She can't be
trusted, and I think Jon knows it. I think he'll try to sway Rupert, and he just might be able to do it.
Reasons for picking Andrew: Should Morgan lose, I think Savage might finally pay for his shaky leadership. Tijuana
alluded to his position last week. However, I think they'll win so it won't matter.
Reasons why Drake wins immunity: Worst reason in the world for
making this pick: Editing. I don't think we've seen the end of Jonny Foulplay, and
he's the natural pick from Drake. Therefore, I think Drake wins immunity.
Reasons for picking Jon: He voted against Rupert last time, so Rupert's
going to want to vote against him. Christa is loyal to Rupert, and will stand strong
with him. Sandra seems to be wavering, but I think she'll stick with Rupert for one
more round. With three votes against Jon, the new arrival won't be able to save
him.
Reasons for picking Darrah: Oh, good golly. It's getting ridiculous, but I
have to pick Darrah again, for all the same reasons: I think that Andrew, Ryan, and
Tijuana are an alliance, and if they can't vote against the new tribe member then they
have to vote against Darrah.
Reasons why Drake wins immunity: Well, Drake's been getting whupped lately, but they've still got vigor. And with a
former Outcast joining them this week, it will only increase that vigor. Morgan is still too weak and too focused on punishing the
returning Outcast to have a good chance of winning. Rupert and the Drakes will likely use the returning Outcast to their advantage,
knowing that if they lose, they can't vote out the Outcast anyway, giving them all the more incentive to win.
Reasons for picking Jon: Jon's the only one left in Drake with a question mark over his head. Rupert's got his followers,
and he's still not sure about Jon. So if Rupert has to take apart his alliance, it will begin with Jon.
Reasons for picking Darrah: I've been waffling between Osten and Andrew these past several weeks, expecting that
Morgan will either vote out their leader (Andrew) for their repeated losses early on or Osten because of his constant weakness. With
Osten gone, I think it will refocus Andrew (plus, they have been winning a lot more lately). The winning will retrench Andrew's position
and give him the opportunity to vote out the weakest member of his alliance (although he may not like it). I suggest that this weakest
member is Darrah.
Reasons why Morgan wins immunity: Burton's strength brings
immediate benefits to the Morgan Tribe, possibly starting with the Reward Challenge,
if there is one. Immunity Challenge will again find Burton's strength carrying this
tribe, and
by this point he would have caught some fish (protein) for the rest of the tribe. Drake
has no strength except for Rupert, who can only do so much.
Reasons for picking Jon: Much to the dismay of most of America, I think
Jon's time has come to strut down the plank to the Losers Lodge. However, Rupert
and his temper will greatly dictate how much farther he goes in this game.
Reasons for picking Ryan O.: If they go back to TC, then I'm not real
sure. I know everyone is leaning towards Darrah, but I think she has quietly worked
her way into an
alliance for the remainder of the game. Having said that, it is probably time for
Rhyno to go home. What real value does he have? Can't fish with the spear, isn't all
that strong, and has no real value. And, if Burton is at Morgan, that will make Rhyno
expendable.
So there you have it. I do think a merge will come the following week or at the
very latest the week after. Another future twist could be no merge at all, but I do
think that to be very unlikely. It would make it very unfair for the jury to make an
impartial decision at the end.
Until next week, that's the bottom line, 'cause stonecoldsw said so!!
And for our previous picks, check out our handy-dandy chart.