CD Giveaway - 33Miles, "One Life"
Ends Aug 4, 2010
The country-pop sound established in their eponymous debut is a mainstay for this album as well, and even adds a little more southern flavor.
CD Giveaway - Phil Wickham, "Cannons"
Ends Aug 3, 2010
With an opening shot that hits the sonic pinnacle, this collection of spiritual Brit pop/rock is heavily influenced by Keane, Travis, Coldplay, and U2.
Hello good people and welcome back to Lost and Delirious for the long awaited, much debated Survivor: All Stars. All Stars marks my 6th season recapping America's #1 reality program and something tells me, this may well be the best. Most of the people on the show I either liked or liked to hate, so I'm finding myself very excited as we prepare for the 8th installment of CBS's ratings giant. The All Stars cast has been talked about and argued over in Survivor internet circles for weeks now (hell, even before we had a winner of Pearl Islands) and I'm happy to say that with one or two exceptions, I'm very happy with the chosen "All Stars." We have some major show changes right off the bat for All Stars. The first of which is that there will be 18 players this time, instead of the traditional 16. Also, instead of being broken down into 2 tribes of 8 people, it looks like this season, we'll finally get a taste of 3 tribe action, as the cast is broken down into 3 tribes of 6. Each tribe (Mogo Mogo, Saboga, Chapera) is named for the island the tribe will be living on. One can only assume, the third tribe will help split up any pre-show alliances/friendships that may have formed. For example, right away you notice that the Richard-Rudy-Sue alliance that dominated the first season of Survivor is torn completely apart, with one member in each tribe. Also, somewhere along the line, CBS is promising that they've "saved the biggest twist for" the All Stars, so stay tuned for that. For the very latest Survivor: All Stars news, be sure to click right here.
Back to the Pearl Islands
There seem to be only 2 things that won't change this time around: Jeff Probst will be leading us through his 8th Survivor, and he'll be leading us around some very familiar territory. All I can guess is Mark Burnett just didn't feel like scouting any new locations for Survivor: All Stars, because we find ourselves back in the Pearl Islands of Panama. As the map to the right shows, the show will actually take place in 2 separate locations (Bocas Del Toros being the other), but nothing seems to be confirmed as to how that will work out. Also, nothing has been confirmed as to how the 3-tribe format will work when it comes to immunity challenges and Tribal Councils. Hopefully, some information will present itself prior to the first show, otherwise, we'll all just have to go and be surprised, won't we?
Now, as I have for several seasons now, as I go along, I will be making predictions and setting odds on winning Survivor: All Stars. And before I do, let me just say that I have NO idea how to handicap this thing. I mean absolutely no idea who will do well and who will leave early. With most of my predictions, I will be going on a simple gut feeling. As I always mention, this is all for fun so please...no wagering. And if you do wager, you'd be smart to take my 100-1 shots and bet the house on them. Anyone who's followed my "predictions" in the past will definitely know what I mean. All right, enough jabbering, let's meet our cast for Survivor: All Stars!!
MOGO MOGO TRIBE
Richard Hatch
Season - Finish: Pulau Tiga - Winner.
Chances: Of all the All Stars, no one throws up the "We gotta get him outta here" flag like Richard. Rich is the master. There's no 2 ways around it. There have been good/great players since Rich, but he drew up the blueprint for beating this game. Because of this, you have to think he has a huge bull’s-eye on his chest. Of course, he had a bull’s-eye on his chest for much of the Pulau Tiga season and still walked away $1mil richer. Something tells me, he'll last a little while, but won't be a contender for the title. In fact, I'd wager that he fails to make the jury. He's just too dangerous to keep around I think people will gang up on the guy. Hate to see it too, cause the longer he's on the show, the more entertaining it will be.
Odds of winning: 50-1
Colby Donaldson
Season - Finish: Australia - Runner Up.
Chances: Ya know, a lot of people gave Colby trouble about taking Tina to the finals with him in Australia. He essentially gave away $1mil because he didn't want to take the chance that an undeserving player would walk away with the money. I'd wager he learned from that. And when you consider the run of immunity challenges he went on including both challenges on the final episode, Colby has to be considered a threat to go all the way. Something tells me he won't be conniving enough to make it to the end, but he will be a player. I see him as a jury member and depending on challenges, he could go far...just not far enough.
Odds of winning: 25-1
Lex Van Den Berghe
Season - Finish: Africa - 3rd place.
Chances: Lex is one of my all time favorites. I'm having a hard time deciding if I think he'll do well because he's my favorite, or because I really think he'll do well. Either way, there's no doubt that Lex (along with Rob C.) is in the top 2 on the list of players that most deserved to win. He controlled everything but his own health in the Africa season, and a stomach ailment (as well as the infamous "piercing question") took him out of the final immunity challenge. I definitely see Lex picking up where he left off and being one of the main players in this game. Definitely a jury guy, perhaps final 4 again.
Odds of winning: 5-1
Jenna Morasca
Season - Finish: Amazon - Winner.
Chances: I'm not sure what kind of chance Jenna would have had in this game with all things being equal. However, as many people are aware, her mother passed away while All Stars was being filmed. And while I've read nothing confirming it (as I try to stay away from spoilers as best I can), you have to think Jenna will leave when she gets the news. The only thing I hope is that she got the news of her mother's turn for the worse in time to get home to be with her. Again, she probably could have gone far, but I have to think she'll be one of the first folks gone, and depending on immunity challenges, could be the first gone from this tribe.
Odds of winning: 100-1
Shii Ann Huang
Season - Finish: Thailand - 10th place.
Chances: From one of my favorite Survivors ever to one of my least favorite. I'm still not exactly sure why she's on the show, but since she is, I'll try to be as fair as possible. The key to Shii Ann's survival will be whether or not she hooks up with Lex. If she does, she can ride his coattails to the end. If she doesn't, he'll get rid of her quick. Given that it was her outspoken personality that got her tossed early in Thailand, I'd wager she checks a little of that at the door this time and plays it a lot more cool. I have a feeling she'll not stir things up but won't exactly join Lex and when the tribes merge, I could easily see her falling into the same trap as she did originally and paying for it. I'd say she fails to make the merge again.
Odds of winning: 75-1
Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien
Season - Finish: Marquesas - 3rd place.
Chances: Ah...Marquesas. The first year I gave odds on winning and the first year that my 100-1 long shots both made the final 3. Kathy was, and still is, an enigma to me. How she did what she did was amazing. She was on the ropes more than Stallone in Rocky 1, yet always managed to come out of it. If not for modesty, she could have won the final challenge and be coming into this game as a millionaire. I think Kathy will impress with her hard work and determination. I also think she'll be deemed a non-threat once the tribes merge. These 2 things together could send her a long way in the game. A la Sandra, there will likely be bigger fish to fry as the big guns (Lex, Rob C, Rob M, Rupert, Richard, Tina et al) take aim at each other. Maybe not a final 4 appearance again, but Kathy on the jury would not surprise me in the least.
Odds of winning: 10-1
SABOGA TRIBE
Ethan Zohn
Season - Finish: Africa - Winner.
Chances: This is Rupert's tribe, Ethan's just living in it. The question is, will he be seen as a threat and removed, or will he join Rupert and help run the show for this tribe. I think he'll be one of the leaders. His "under the radar, let Lex be the bad guy" plan won't work this time and I think he'll take more of a leadership role. It should serve him well until the tribes all get together and the slaughter begins. I really don't see Ethan as much of a threat to win the game, and he may even be a surprise early exit. I'm thinking it'll be tough for any winners to make the jury, and Ethan will be no exception.
Odds of winning: 50-1
Rudy Boesch
Season - Finish: Pulau Tiga- 3rd place.
Chances: A fan favorite from Pulau Tiga, Rudy latched onto Rich and road the dominant alliance to the final 3. Unless he can latch on to someone here, he stands little to no chance of making any kind of noise. At 72, he was a specimen, but still slower than everyone else and not much of a threat in the challenges. At 75, he'll be slower still and will essentially hinder his tribe more than help it, I think. Sadly, I could see Rudy as one of the first few folks gone from the game. I just don't think he'll have what it takes, and Rupert and Ethan will need him gone if their tribe is to perform well in challenges. Plus, who wants to see Rudy, Rich and Sue reunited at merge time. Their alliance could still be in tact and we saw what it did last time. Rudy will likely be an early casualty this time around.
Odds of winning: 100-1
Rupert Boneham
Season - Finish: Pearl Islands - 8th place.
Chances: Ah yes. Rupert. Rupert will be an enigma for the rest of the players as they were filming the show while the Pearl Islands was unfolding on television. Everyone has seen everyone play, except Rupert. I see Rupert as a major player in this game and here's why. I see Jenna gravitating toward him (like Christa did) and I think he and Tina will get along very well. I could see them as a 3-person alliance to be reckoned with. However, if Rupert puts on the challenge display like he did in the Islands, he's toast once the tribes merge. Lex, Colby and the Robs will not give him a chance to really set himself up as the man to beat. I'll say he's a jury member, but will once again fall short of the final 4.
Odds of winning: 10-1
Jenna Lewis
Season - Finish: Pulau Tiga - 7th place.
Chances: While I always kinda liked Jenna, my reaction to her inclusion was honestly, "Huh? Why?" While I'm not exactly sure why she was compelling enough to be put on All Stars, I definitely see her and Rupert hooking up and forming a bond. If they can pull in one more person (Tina?), they could be in it for the long haul. The only thing about Jenna, I remember her being a pretty sweet girl and very likable. Who wants to sit next to that in the final two. I have a feeling once the merge comes, Jenna could be "the nice one" that no one wants to go up against. She'll make the merge, but I don't see much else from her.
Odds of winning: 25-1
Jerri Manthey
Season - Finish: Australia - 9th place.
Chances: If Lex is #1 on my favorite Survivors list, Jerri is #1a. I absolutely loved her in the Outback. She made the show interesting and other than Jonny Fairplay and maybe Heidi, I don't think there was a more celebrated boot than when Jerri took the walk of shame. She likes to stir things up and isn't afraid to use her looks and body to get what she wants. Sadly, this won't get her very far with Rupert or Rudy. Her only chance is Ethan, and I think she'll just be out of luck. For Jerri to do well, she needs to work hard and shut up until the merge. Once the tribes are merged and she can wrap the Robs around her finger, she can start being more herself. I'm on the fence about how she'll do. While I'd love to see her make the final 4, I don't think it's in the cards for her. In fact, at this point, I have to say that making the jury is a question mark...and that makes me sad.
Odds of winning: 75-1
Tina Wesson
Season - Finish: Australia - Winner.
Chances: I don't think most of the winners have much of chance this time around, except Tina. I think she'll join Kathy in the "she's not a threat, we can get rid of her anytime" category and she just may hitch a ride on the right alliance and ride it all the way to the end. If she can lock in with Rupert and Jenna (or maybe Ethan), she could have a good set up going into the merge. And if she gets there, watch out for her. She's smarter and stronger than you think. I do think she'll stop shy of the prize though. I can't imagine anyone being stupid enough to take her the final 2 again. Definite jury member, final 4 potential, but might fall just short of that.
Odds of winning: 5-1
CHAPERA TRIBE
Rob Cesternino
Season - Finish: Amazon - 3rd place.
Chances: Rob played a near flawless game in the Amazon. His only fault was not winning the final immunity challenge. Had he won it, he likely would have been the first unanimous winner of Survivor. Everyone recognized he controlled the game and seemed prepared to reward him for it. Alas, it wasn't to be. The question is, can he do it again? Actually, the question is can he and Boston Rob coexist? I think they can, and they will. In fact, I could see them joining forces to form one of the power alliances in this game. If either Amber or Big Tom climb onboard, the Rob Express could roll straight into the final four. For some reason though, I see this panning out better for the Robfather. I see Rob C as a jury member, but he won't improve on his finish in the Amazon.
Odds of winning: 10-1
Rob Mariano
Season - Finish: Marquesas - 10th place.
Chances: I don't know what it is, but I've got this gut feeling that Rob M is gonna go far in this game. When you look at Marquesas, he led the charge that broke up Nurse John's alliance. Like him or not, Rob changed the face of that season before getting tossed early. I think he'll do well this time out. The one downfall for him (and Rob C, for that matter) is when the merge hits and these horndogs get a look at either Jenna L or Jerri (or both), they could be in trouble. Seriously though, I see Rob being a major player in this game, and my gut tells me that he's final four material this time out.
Odds of winning: 5-1
Tom Buchanan
Season - Finish: Africa - 4th place.
Chances: Big Tom is one of those people that I have no idea what he'll do. In a tribe full of strong personalities, what side of the fence will he fall on? Will he hook up with the Robs, or will he hook up with the girls? Honestly, I think he'll do neither and that will be his downfall. I've got another gut feeling here and it's telling me that Tom won't make it very far. I have no basis on this, just a gut feeling. He'll be gone before the tribes merge.
Odds of winning: 75-1
Alicia Calaway
Season - Finish: Australia - 9th place.
Chances: Ya know, other than the whole "I will always wave my finger in your face" episode in the Outback, I don't really even remember Alicia on the show. I know she's an incredibly strong woman and I know that she didn't really make it very far in the game. I have no idea what kind of strategy, if any, she employs and I don't know that she has the deceitfulness in her to make it far in this game, especially with 3 masters of deceit like Sue and the Robs. I think Alicia may well fall short of the merge as well. And that's a shame, she'd probably be a very good winner.
Odds of winning: 50-1
Amber Brkich
Season - Finish: Australia - 6th place.
Chances: Why is Amber here? The only thing I can assume is they wanted a cute girl to fill the slot that Colleen and Elizabeth turned down. Amber placed 6th, but really did very little besides ride in Jerri's shadow. She did nothing to distinguish herself from the rest of the cast or to demonstrate any real strategy for the game. I don't see her lasting very long. She's the weak link on this tribe and I fully expect her to be the first one from this tribe voted out.
Odds of winning: 100-1
Susan Hawk
Season - Finish: Pulau Tiga - 4th place.
Chances: Who can forget Sue's "if you were dying of thirst, I wouldn't give you a glass of water" speech from the first season's Jury session? Sue turned out to be a player because she was able to be both loyal and backstabbing. She got in with Rich, Rudy and Kelly right off the bat and stuck with them through it all. While her explosive personality mixed in with Cesternino and Mariano seems like a recipe for some good fights, it also could be a recipe to a solid alliance. I see these 3 hooking up and doing very well. I see Sue as a jury member but I would say the final four is a long shot for her.
Odds of winning: 25-1
And there you have it kids. This is your cast for the ultimate Survivor. Before I go further with predictions, I want to mention that I like the cast. There are a couple people I'd like to see replaced with others. For example, I'd love to see Brian Heidik match wits with the other masters. I'd also like to see Jonny Fairplay out there. That way we'd have all of the people that actually controlled all 7 seasons in the game. Also, because she won, I would much rather see Vecepia out there over either Shii Ann or Amber. Also, Mike Skupin is the one I really wanted to see back at it, but word around the campfire was that he wasn't interested. Rumor has it that both Vee and Brian turned down the invites...and with others turning it down too, I'd say they put together about as good a cast as they could...so kudos to Mark Burnett and CBS for that. Now let's hope the show turns out as good as the cast.
THE JURY
As you can probably tell from my odds, I'm picking 3 people out of each tribe to make the jury this time around. Sure, one tribe could dominate while another dies, but I'm betting on parity this season. My jury consists of: Colby, Jenna L, Kathy, Lex, Rob C, Rob M, Rupert, Susan and Tina
THE FINAL FOUR
And why stop at the jury, I always say. Why not go a little farther and pick the Final Four? I have strong feelings about 2 of the Final Four, the other 2 are just a guess. But I'm going with: Kathy, Lex, Rob M and Tina.
THE WINNER
And if I'm going to pick the Jury and the Final Four, I may as well just pick the Final Two and a winner, right? Of course I should. Drum roll please...in a close vote, my prediction is that Lex Van Den Berghe will beat out Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien for the title of Sole Survivor of Survivor: All Stars.
A reminder to everyone reading this that Survivor: All Stars will premiere on CBS immediately following the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 1st. Now, the game begins at 6:25pm EST/5:25pm CST, which means Survivor will be getting a late start. You figure a 4 hour Super Bowl, and that puts Survivor somewhere around 10:30pm on the east coast. Since that'll be a late night for me already, look for the 1st Lost and Delirious on Tuesday morning. And a further reminder, be sure to check back right here at The Trades for the weekly version of the S-Ratings, where The Trades staff will try to predict who will be the next person kicked out of the tribe.
MOGO MOGO TRIBE
Age
Previous Season
Finish
Jim's Line
Richard Hatch
42
Pulau Tiga (1)
Winner
50-1
Colby Donaldson
29
Australia (2)
Runner Up
25-1
Lex Van Den Berghe
40
Africa (3)
3rd Place
5-1
Jenna Morasca
22
Amazon (6)
Winner
100-1
Shii Ann Huang
30
Thailand (5)
10th Place
75-1
Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien
50
Marquesas (4)
3rd Place
10-1
SABOGA TRIBE
Age
Season
Finish
Jim's Line
Ethan Zohn
30
Africa (3)
Winner
50-1
Rudy Boesch
76
Pulau Tiga (1)
3rd Place
100-1
Rupert Boneham
40
Pearl Islands (7)
8th Place
10-1
Jenna Lewis
26
Pulau Tiga (1)
7th Place
25-1
Jerri Manthey
33
Australia (2)
9th Place
75-1
Tina Wesson
42
Australia (2)
Winner
5-1
CHAPERA TRIBE
Age
Season
Finish
Jim's Line
Rob Cesternino
25
Amazon (6)
3rd Place
10-1
Rob Mariano
28
Marquesas (4)
10th Place
5-1
Tom Buchanan
48
Africa (3)
4th Place
75-1
Alicia Calaway
35
Australia (2)
9th Place
50-1
Amber Brkich
25
Australia (2)
6th Place
100-1
Susan Hawk
42
Pulau Tiga (1)
4th Place
25-1
For all your Survivor News, Links, Interesting Tidbits check out these sites:
Richard Hatch
Colby Donaldson
Lex Van Den Berghe
Jenna Morasca
Shii Ann Huang
Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien
Ethan Zohn
Rudy Boesch
Rupert Boneham
Jenna Lewis
Jerri Manthey
Tina Wesson
Rob Cesternino
Rob Mariano
Tom Buchanan
Alicia Calaway
Amber Brkich
Susan Hawk