Oscar Watch: Academy Awards 2000 - Winners, Part Three
by Kenneth Leung
Published: March 23, 2001
It has been almost a month since the nominations were announced but on Sunday night the whole world will know who will walk away from the Shrine Auditorium with an Oscar. To whet your appetite before the big ceremony, here’s an article from the staff at ‘The Trades’ predicting who will in the major categories but more importantly who should deserve to win. As it has been seen before in recent years, the Oscar rarely goes to the most deserving nominee. The whole awards ceremony is a pay-off with some nominations winning just because Academy members feel pity for the film or performers losing out in other categories or previous years respectively. Yet predicting the winners is far more an objective matter rather than a subjective manner. A good yardstick would be the union awards, the PGA, SAG and the WGA. On average each year, these awards get six out of the eight major categories right.
So lets start off at the bottom and make our way up to the top.
Original Screenplay
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Susannah Grant; Erin Brockovich |
Cameron Crowe; Almost Famous |
| Philip Eibeck |
Kenneth Lonergan; You Can Count on Me |
Kenneth Lonergan; You Can Count on Me |
| Alex Keen |
Cameron Crowe; Almost Famous |
Christopher McQuarrie; The Way of the Gun |
| Kenneth Leung |
Cameron Crowe; Almost Famous |
Kenneth Lonergan; You Can Count on Me |
| Chad Maddux |
David Franzoni, John Logan & William Nicholson; Gladiator |
Susannah Grant; Erin Brockovich |
| Jim Van Nest |
David Franzoni, John Logan & William Nicholson; Gladiator |
N/A |
The opinions are wide and varied. It seems split between Gladiator and Almost Famous, with probably the latter having the edge. I think You Can Count on Me is too small, despite its WGA award and Erin Brockovich may be overshadowed by Julia Roberts’ performance. I have serious concerns about Gladiator’s chances since the film did not receive a WGA nomination, hampering its chances.
Adapted Screenplay
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
| Philip Eibeck |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
| Alex Keen |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
John Cusack, D.V. DeVincentis, Steve Pink & Scott Rosenberg; High Fidelity |
| Kenneth Leung |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
| Chad Maddux |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
Stephen Gaghan; Traffic |
| Jim Van Nest |
Wang Hui Ling, James Schamus & Tsai Kuo Jung; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
N/A |
The overwhelming favourite, both logically and sentimentally, is the three stories combining to form Traffic. I do not even have to write about the others, since they are considered distant long-shots at best.
Supporting Actress
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Frances McDormand; Almost Famous |
Frances McDormand; Almost Famous |
| Philip Eibeck |
Kate Hudson; Almost Famous |
Marcia Gay Harden; Pollock |
| Alex Keen |
Kate Hudson; Almost Famous |
Frances McDormand; Almost Famous |
| Kenneth Leung |
Kate Hudson; Almost Famous |
Julie Walters; Billy Elliot |
| Chad Maddux |
Kate Hudson; Almost Famous |
Judi Dench; Chocolat |
| Jim Van Nest |
Judi Dench; Chocolat |
N/A |
It honestly seems the award will go to Almost Famous but to which actress? It is a two-way tie between McDormand and Hudson but the recent Oscar already possessed McDormand could persuade the Academy to be more ‘hip’ and present the award to younger star, namely Hudson.
Supporting Actor
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
| Philip Eibeck |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
Albert Finney; Erin Brockovich |
| Alex Keen |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
| Kenneth Leung |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
| Chad Maddux |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
Benicio Del Toro; Traffic |
| Jim Van Nest |
Willem Dafoe; Shadow of a Vampire |
N/A |
Another outright favourite, again from Traffic, is Benicio Del Toro. If he can win the SAG award for Best ACTOR, I think taking the Oscar in the Supporting Actor category should be as easy as taking candy from a baby.
Actress
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Julia Roberts; Erin Brockovich |
Ellen Burstyn; Requiem for a Dream |
| Philip Eibeck |
Julia Roberts; Erin Brockovich |
Ellen Burstyn; Requiem for a Dream |
| Alex Keen |
Julia Roberts; Erin Brockovich |
Björk; Dancer in the Dark & Michelle Yeoh; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
| Kenneth Leung |
Julia Roberts; Erin Brockovich |
Laura Linney; You Can Count on Me |
| Chad Maddux |
Julia Roberts; Erin Brockovich |
Ellen Burstyn; Requiem for a Dream |
| Jim Van Nest |
Julia Roberts; Erin Brockovich |
N/A |
Everybody thinks that Julia Roberts will win the award, with the SAG award to boost her chances, but nobody thinks she deserves it. The most fingers point to Ellen Burstyn for that honour. It seems that Julia Roberts will only get the Oscar just because she is a big Hollywood star that everybody wants to see on stage and bawl her eyes out, just like Gwyneth Paltrow did a few years back. The biggest surprise of the night could come in this category.
Actor
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Russell Crowe; Gladiator |
Tom Hanks; Cast Away |
| Philip Eibeck |
Tom Hanks; Cast Away |
Javier Bardem; Before Night Falls |
| Alex Keen |
Russell Crowe; Gladiator |
Samuel L. Jackson; Unbreakable |
| Kenneth Leung |
Russell Crowe; Gladiator |
Geoffrey Rush; Quills |
| Chad Maddux |
Russell Crowe; Gladiator |
Russell Crowe; Gladiator |
| Jim Van Nest |
Russell Crowe; Gladiator |
N/A |
Another outright favourite that seems to be a non-sentimental favourite in this category is Russell Crowe - a lot of bad press does not make him look like a nice guy to receive the award. Javier Bardem, Ed Harris and Geoffrey Rush give great performances in too small and too radical films while the two Oscars are weighing down on Tom Hanks’ chances of winning a third Oscar in eight years. That leaves the lone man standing as Russell Crowe.
Director
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
| Philip Eibeck |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
| Alex Keen |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
| Kenneth Leung |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Steven Soderbergh; Traffic |
| Chad Maddux |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
| Jim Van Nest |
Ang Lee; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
N/A |
It seems the Academy will split the Soderbergh vote, leaving Scott and Lee. Scott has not been gathering the plaudits usually associated with the film getting the most nominations and that has been seen at the DGA awards, when Lee received the Best Director of the Year award. It seems we could get a split between Best Picture and Best Director, where the awards are usually linked.
Picture
| Staff Member |
Who will win |
Who deserves to win |
| Raul Burriel |
Gladiator |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
| Philip Eibeck |
Gladiator |
Traffic |
| Alex Keen |
Gladiator |
The Way of the Gun |
| Kenneth Leung |
Gladiator |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
| Chad Maddux |
Gladiator |
Traffic |
| Jim Van Nest |
Gladiator |
N/A |
It seems the best film of the year (either Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon or Traffic) will not win Best Picture – how many times has that been said before in the past? This honour usually goes to the film with the most nominations and this year it goes to Gladiator. Hopefully the Academy will do something right for a change and not follow the form book.
All will be revealed on Sunday night, so stayed tuned on ABC to see if the staff at ‘The Trades’ have got it spot on or have flunked the test.
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